An Upset Win At Permatang Pauh By Election?

Can there be an upset win at the Permatang Pauh by election for umno?

Malaysiakini reported Huge turnout as Anwar launches comeback bid. But huge turnout does not necessary means that the X counted on the ballot box will be huge. And YB Lim Kit Siang has this to say:
Permatang Pauh by-election – Anwar will win hands down if decided by Nomination turnout. IF Only......lah

Nothing is impossible but we have to be realistic sometimes. Up to this moment pundit are putting at least a 10,000 votes majority for Anwar. Things may change, anything can happen between now till election day and that is 9 more days to go.

Umno needs only to reduce the majority to claim an upset win. We take a look back at the 12 GE results:

P44 - Permatang Pauh

12TH General Election Result

Registered Voters - 58449
Turnout - 47934
BN - 16950
PKR - 30348
Spoil Votes - 636
Majority - 13398

PKR won by a majority of 13,398 with an 82% turnout.

This by election will have the same numbers of voters but no one can predict the turnout. The EC had chosen a working day for the by election and the EC need not have to give any reason or explanation. But the public perception is that the EC have to select the day under umno's directive. This is one point advantage to umno as they expect the turnout to be low and the majority will be reduced as well.

Umno today cannot solely depends on the malay votes, they have to seek the non malays especially the chinese which comprise about 27% of the electorate. By nominating Arif who can speak mandarin and hokkien, they hope to sway some chinese voters to reduce, again, the majority. Will the chinese take the bait after giving such a huge mandate to Pakatan Rakyat in the just concluded 12 GE?

The umno control medias will have to serve their master and we can expect slanted daily reports throughout the campaign period. TV7 had started today by giving the umno candidate a live interview in mandarin and we can expect more of this from RTM1, 2 and especially TV3. Will this have any effect on the voters?

We can make a prediction today on the outcome of the by election and we will come back for a final analysis on the eve of election day.

Anwar can claim victory now but by how much the majority is. With the above arguments and a prediction of a lower turnout, the most is about 65% to 70%, the majority will be reduced.

For umno they are happy and consider their lost as a major upset win should the majority be reduced to less then 10,000.